A few years ago I used to try and predict the results of the Eurovision Song Contest. I would use a mixture of my Eurovision viewing experience, my intuition, and some dodgy statistics, all to a varying degree of success*.
The Eurovision Final 2018 will be live from Lisbon on May 12th.
The statistical approach was inspired by Google’s far more successful attempt in 2010 which used search results and Eurovision’s straight forward voting system. However, it wasn’t that difficult to pick out Lena as the winner that year.
Lena performing to 2010 winning song, Satellite.
I’d given up in recent years, mainly because of my utter lack of any form of success, but I decided to come out of retirement for one more go. This year I’m going to use a system of seven YouTube based stats, with each song ranked and scored (using the Eurovision scoring system, naturally) against each stat. The total scores will determine my final prediction.
Here are my stats, each extracted on the evening of 27th April 2018 from the official song videos from the Eurovision channel.
Most Views – Israel (12), Spain (10), Bulgaria (8), Czech Rep. (7), Sweden (6)
Most Likes – Israel (12), Spain (10), Bulgaria (8), Czech Rep. (7), Sweden (6)
Least Dislikes – Iceland (12), Slovenia (10), Poland (8), Switzerland (7), Albania (6)
Percentage of Likes to Views – Spain (12), Iceland (10), Italy (8), Greece (7), Switzerland (6)
Ratio of Likes to Dislikes (the ‘Crystal Maze’ ratio) – Spain (12), Greece (10), Switzerland (8), Italy (7), Poland (6)
Views per Person (ie, divided by country’s population) – San Marino (12), Malta (10), Israel (8), Estonia (7), FYR Macedonia (6)
Likes per Person – San Marino (12), Malta (10), Israel (8), Estonia (7), Cyprus (6)
Note, I have performed the stats as separate semi-finals because, you know, I have better things to do…
And my final positions are… *drumroll* … –
- Spain
Spain’s entry is a lovely song and I am sure it will do well.
2. Israel
Probably the favourite to win, I think the judges might be unfair to this one.
3.San Marino
ROBOTS!!! I LOVE THE ROBOTS!!! ALL MUSIC WITH ROBOTS IS GOOD!!!**
4.Bulgaria
5.Malta
6.Iceland
7.Greece
8.Switzerland
9.Poland
10. Italy
“But, Chris”, I hear you ask, “what about the UK’s chances?”
Well, we’re unpopular, the song is awful, and my stats place it a solid 43 out of 43 – it won’t be far off that. Be thankful for any points we may pick up. We all know what should have been our entry…
Thank you for reading this nonsense – who do you think will win this year?
Chris (@FloodSkinner)
*absolutely no success whatsoever.
**Exhibit A
Sir Killalot’s mercifully short and needlessly offensive music career.
